By Thilmeeza Hussain
The political impasse in the
smallest country in the Indian Ocean is drawing global attention to India’s
power in the region and its leadership role in the world.
If India does not act swiftly to ensure that the Maldivian
people’s rights are protected and democracy is restored in the country, China,
which has sided with the current Maldivian ruler Abdulla Yameen, is going to
consolidate power in the region around India.
The Maldives has been on a downhill slope since the coup
d’état in 2012, when former president Mohamed Nasheed was forced to resign
under duress; the country’s situation has deteriorated steadily since Yameen
took office in a highly contested election. Soon after taking office, he has
prosecuted every opposition leader and they are either in jail or exile.
For many Maldivians like me, the coup d’état still feels
surreal. We watched parliamentarians getting beaten on the streets and peaceful
protesters being met with batons and pepper spray. The death of Maldivian
democracy stood in stark contrast to our euphoria after the hard-earned end of
a 30-year dictatorship. Yameen’s older half-brother, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who
lost the first multi-party election in 2008, was the only president many of us
had known our entire lives.
For four years, we tasted freedom and rule of law.
Today,
voices demanding freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, or calling to uphold
the rule of law are thrown behind bars. The door to jail cells is a revolving
one, and there is a continuous flow of political prisoners.
Not even members of Yameen’s own political party are safe
if they are seen as a threat to his power. Not too long ago, we saw a member of
Parliament (MP) stabbed to death with a machete on the stairwell of his home.
When an investigative journalist, Ahmed Rilwan, started reporting on the
murder, he was abducted from his home and hasn’t been seen since. Shortly
after, Rilwan’s friend and political blogger Yameen Rasheed, who sought the
truth of his friend’s disappearance, was stabbed in the neck and chest multiple
times in the stairwell of his apartment building. State-sponsored attacks on
citizens and a culture of impunity have taken over our country. Despite being
under constant threat, harassment and fear, Maldivians are still fighting for
their rights every day.
It’s clear that the current pressure from the international
community, including our closest ally and neighbour India, has not stopped
Yameen’s blatant disregard for the rule of law so far. For example, the
international community condemned the current administration’s refusal to
release former president Nasheed, eight other political prisoners and reinstate
12 members of Parliament. Instead of abiding by our Supreme Court ruling,
Yameen’s government declared a state of emergency, arresting and jailing two
Supreme Court justices, three MPs, his half-brother, former president Gayoom,
and anyone whom he saw as a danger to his rule.
We Maldivians share strong ethnic, linguistic, cultural and
commercial ties with India but if our human rights abuses are not enough to
compel India into taking more concrete steps to stop Yameen, their own security
should be reason enough.
The rapid deterioration of the situation in the Maldives
since 2012 has extended far beyond the shores of our islands because of our location,
and it has brought India’s significance in the region into question. The worth
of this vast ocean to India cannot be exaggerated.
The
Maldives lies next to crucial shipping lanes, one of the major choke points for
the world maritime transit of oil which provides continuous energy supplies
from the West to the Far East through the Indian Ocean (equivalent to just
under half of the world’s total oil supply). Also, according to India’s
ministry of shipping, about 95% of the country’s trade by volume and 70% by
value comes via the Indian Ocean. As China swiftly grows its military presence
in the Indian Ocean in the garb of anti-piracy operations, India must come up
with a more coherent plan; at the end of last year, it was forced to carry out
a threat assessment due to the presence of Chinese submarines in the Indian
Ocean.
The Maldives, since its independence in 1965, has had an
“India first” policy and leaders of both countries have held high-level
exchanges on regional issues. But since Yameen took office, he has aligned with
China, which has defended his authoritarian rule. The Maldives now owes about
80% of its foreign debt to China, which has been spreading its wings rapidly in
South Asia and has been eyeing the atoll nation for its strategic location.
China has already cosied up to Nepal by helping the latter reduce its
significant trade deficit; it has invested heavily in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
China is strategically encircling India under the fancy name of the “Silk Road
Project”. A part of the road will also pass through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir
and may eventually help further Pakistani ambitions in Kashmir.
Is India losing its grip in the region and becoming a
non-actor in the mighty Indian Ocean? Are we witnessing the making of the Great
Ocean of China? If India loses its dominant power in Asia, it will not be able
to safeguard its security or protect its interests.
Although ours may be the smallest country in the region,
our economic and political value cannot be overlooked. Let’s hope it’s not too
late by the time India recognizes this.
This article was originally published 2/20/18 by
LiveMint, www.livemint.com
Thilmeeza Hussain is a former deputy
ambassador of the Maldives to the UN and a 2018 Aspen Institute New Voices
fellow. She teaches World Sustainability at Ramapo College and is a visiting
professor in the Environmental Writing program.
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